discrepancies in the target number tables

[galafrone]

probably has been already rectified, but i couldnt find anything anywhere
we found out a discrepancy between rows 14, 15 and 16.

14 1–7 8–13 14–20 21–25 26–30 31+
15 1–8 9–14 15–22 23–26 27–30 31+
16 1–9 10–15 16–23 24–27 28–32 33+

14 is pathetic: 1–7 poor: 8–13 average: 14–20 good: 21–25 excellent: 26–30 extraordinary: 31+
15 is pathetic: 1–8 poor: 9–14 average: 15–22 good: 23–26 excellent: 27–30 extraordinary: 31+
16 is pathetic: 1–9 poor: 10–15 average: 16–23 good: 24–27 excellent: 28–32 extraordinary: 33+

so it's easier to do an excellent result with the 14 than the 15
weird
and there is a gap in the extraordinary (not inusual, but since it's nerfed the excellent...)

we thought at a mistake, that probably has already hit the surface from a long time, but as i said i cant find anything

any official errata on that ?

[arma]

Of course it is easier to get an excellent result against a 14 than it is against a 15...
...or am I missing something here?

[galafrone]

it's like that, ofc, but the problem is how is possible that with the 14 you have 5 chances (26-30) to get an extra, with the 15 you have 4 (27-30) and have the same extraordinary, while with the 16 you have again 5 (28-32) and get the extra at 33 ?
the thing that perplexes me isnt the fact that the 14 get hit excellently at 26 > 30, is the 15 gets it at 27 (fine) but still is capped at 30, getting the extraordinary at the same number
then 16 jumps up by 2 numbers (returns a 5 depth excellent 28-32 and extra at 33)
shouldnt be better if the excellent of 15 should be 27-31 and the extraordinary at 32 ?

[arma]

You can't look at the "width" of a level for statistical comparison (what you call "X chances").
The entries on the table are determined by how good your chance in % is to get a certain DN or higher and the result levels have certain chances assigned.
For example, with a Step 10, you roughly got a 56% chance to roll a 9 and a 47% chance to get a 10.
Between these two percentages is a line, though, the 50%-average-result-line. The odds of rolling a 9 are above 50%, the odds of rolling a 10 are below. Because of this, a 10+ is an Average Result, because your chances of getting it are 50% or lower. And a 9 is only a Poor Result.
There's "lines" for all the result levels. Good is at 15%, Poor is at 85% (85% of your rolls will be above the Poor-line; that is they can be better than Poor, but they'll be above the line).
Because these %-lines don't absolutely correspond to the odds of the individual dice combinations, you'll sometimes have it happen that two different steps place their line for a value on the same number.
This is very rare, and typically happens when you go from D12 to 2D6 and only for the higher result levels because their %-numbers get very small. The higher step gets the 2D6. While 2D6 achieve a higher _average_ result, a single D12 has higher "rare" results. You'll be familiar with this from the game, you'll sometimes have your casters roll high/insane initiatives on their single die initiative steps, but it's more rare to see a Warrior with Air Dance + Tiger Spring roll something that seems much out of the ordinary. The statistics at work behind this are "you'll re-roll a D12 less often, but IF you do, you got a good chance of getting really high". For example by rolling a 10 after a 12 for a 22 total. If you want to get that with 2D6, you'll need to roll like 3 sixes on them and then another good number.

[Telarus_KSC]

++This is very rare, and typically happens when you go from D12 to 2D6 and only for the higher result levels++

If it wasn't clear from arma's posts, the %-breakpoints for Step 14 are calculated with 2D12 as the dice pool, and the %-breakpoints for Step 15 are calculated with D12+2D6 as the dice pool, Step 16 calculated with D12+D8+D6. It just so happens that 14 & 15 break in the same place @ the Extraordinary level, and Step 16 breaks at two higher.

It's a bit odd when you as a GM or Player are rolling different dice pools against that Difficulty.. but the odds work out.

[Mataxes]

And for a bit more in-depth look at the step system and the probabilities behind it, check out the "Articles" section over at my website www.loremerchant.com