The Step System probability charts

[Kot]

Mataxes, that would be awesome. Than you!

[Flagg]

I quickly put together some charts, based on 255 rolls of each step number. The steps aren't as erratic as I remember, but they do definitely tighten up as the step number rises.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... Fo3SVNhN1E

[Kot]

The problem is that this one doesn't tell me much, except that I'll get a headache if I try to figure it out. That's why I'm trying to get that article - it was explained thoroughly, without mind-boggling statistical and mathematical terms and tables.

[Mataxes]

I just dug up the files. They are in the email now.

[Telarus_KSC]

[Mataxes]

For those who were interested in the articles that were up on the old RedBrick site, I've done a quick editing pass and have posted the first two up at www.loremerchant.com -- the new home of the Lore Merchant. As of this posting, only the first two are up, but the others should be following in the next couple of days.

[Mataxes]

And all four are up.

[Telarus_KSC]

Buuuummp!

I've figured out some really cool ways to use AnyDice.com to crunch some Earthawn 4th Edition Step probabilities. One of the most difficult things to come up with quickly is "What are my odds of Step X vs target number T?"

I've written a program to do that, and it will give you the % of the time you will fail, vs % of the time you will succeed. I'm going to use this to balance D&D encounters I'm converting. Have the step chart handy when you use this. I think there's a public 4E Step Chart out, right?

Here's how it works. Scroll down to the bottom of the program. Edit the Target: and X: variable (Step #) to what you need. Click Calculate, then click on Table, and Normal. The "0" value shows the % chance to fail the roll, the "1" value shows the % chance to succeed the roll!
Program link: http://anydice.com/program/4f3d

Now, if you want to compare 2 step numbers vs the same target, here is another program with 2 variables, X: and Y:, and two outputs.
Set your Target, the X and Y step #s, and click Calculate > Table > Transpose. This will show the fail % groups, and success % chance grouped, so you can compare them.
Program link: http://anydice.com/program/4f3e

[Telarus_KSC]

Yah, this is cool. Two more quick programs.

The next one tests a Step number against a range of target numbers (gven as the loop start/end values). Change X & range numbers > Calculate > Table > Transposed for the odds.
Program link: http://anydice.com/program/4f3f

This final one tests a Step Number against a Target number, gives odds of success, and then gives odds of each +5 "Success level" over the target number (up to +5 Successes over the base target number). Change X > Calculate > Table > Transposed for the odds (again "0" is % chance of failure, "1" is % chance of success).
Program link: http://anydice.com/program/4f42

So, we can see that a spellcaster with Spellcasting 15, vs a Target Spell Defense of 9, has a 87.50% chance of success, a 56.79% chance of +1 success levels, 26.31% chance of +2 success levels, 11.63% chance of +3 success levels (etc).

Adding a Karma (equivalent to a +4 Step bonus) would lead to these odds: a 92.50% chance of success, a 74.07% chance of +1 success levels, 51.16% chance of +2 success levels, 27.25% chance of +3 success levels (etc).

Neat numbers to have for a design perspective.

[Telarus_KSC]

Uuug, those links broke. I still have the basic program tho. I'll have to figure out a better way to do this.....