With Avoid Blow rank 2 he rolls step 9, +1d6 (step 4) for Karma, giving him a 13 as median result, which is already 2 higher than his PD. He thus has a great chance at avoiding. If you add in the importance of not being hit at all for the Windling and his rather low toughness step, this should be a no-brainer to take it.
However:
His (the player's) perception will differ greatly, as we tend to remember/perceive bad events more easily than good events. So if he tries to avoid 10 times and actually manages 7 of those, he will still feel the talent is not worth it.
Further he'd have to watch the skewing of statistics of only rolling against attacks that were "at least" his PD, many probably a good bit higher. So his success probability will be way lower than it would be if you only compare to his PD.
TL;DR: If you push him to take it, he may possibly resent you or the Char for it, as you can see it for taking player agency away. If he decides to take it later, it won't be expensive.Statistics:Posted by Aegharan — Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:18 pm
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